Tag questions (Tugas 4)

 TAG QUESTIONS

Tag questions merupakan gabungan dari sentence dan questions tag.

Example :                                                           
Add question tag at the end of the following sentences. They want to come, don’t they?

1. They won’t be here, will they?
2. Cristian is a student, isn’t he?
3. He has learned a lot in the last couple of years, hasn’t he?
4. He has a car, doesn’t he?
5. She’ll help us later, won’t she?
6. Nothing is wrong, are they?
7. I am invited, aren’t i?
8. She cried last night, didn’t she?
9. He went to bandung yesterday, didn’t he?
10. Those aren’t your books, are they?
11. Everyone can’t come, can they?
12. Class ends at 11.30, doesn’t it?
13. Nobody has told you the secret, has they?
14. You haven’t seen that movie, have you?
15. We have class tomorrow, haven’t we?
16. She is never late to class, is she?
17. Fahmi sat in front of maya yesterday, didn’t she?
18. You had good time last week, didn’t you?
19. These keys don’t belong to you, does they?

Influence of the variation of fundamental constants on the primordial nucleosynthesis

REVIEW JOURNAL

TITLE             : Influence of the variation of fundamental constants

on the primordial nucleosynthesis

WRITER         : Alain Coc , Pierre Descouvemont, Jean-Philippe Uzan3 and Elisabeth Vangioni

A.    The background and research purposes

These constraints are derived from a wide variety of physical systems and span a large time interval back to Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN). Using inputs from WMAP for the baryon density , BBN yields excellent agreement between the theoretical predictions and astrophysical determinations for the abundances of D and He despite the discrepancy between theoretical prediction of 7Li and its determined abundance in halo stars. The effects of the variation of fundamental constants on BBN predictions is difficult to model. However, one can proceed in a two step approach: first by determining the dependencies of the light element abundances on the nuclear parameters and then by relating those parameters to the fundamental constants, following our earlier work.

B.     Method

·         The triple–alpha

The triple-alpha reaction is a two step process in which, first, two alpha–particles fuse into the Be ground state, so that an equilibrium (2a $8Be) is achieved. The second step is another alpha capture to the Hoyle state in. In our cluster approximation the wave functions of the Be and C nuclei are approximated by two and three-cluster wave functions involving the alpha particle, considered as a cluster of 4 nucleons. It allows the calculation of the variation of the 8Be ground state and 12C Hoyle state w.r.t. The results of research and discussions

·         The He(d,p) He and H(d,n) He reactions

The He(d,p) He and  H(d,n) He reactions proceeds through the Li and  He compound nuclei and their rates are dominated by contributions of  + analog resonances. The corresponding levels are well approximated by cluster structures (Hed or td), so that we can use the same microscopic model as for the He(aa,g )12C reaction. However, unlike in the case of  Be, the He and 5Li nuclei are unbound by _1 MeV and the resonances are broad. Therefore the issue of producing A=5 bound states, or even a two step process, like the triple–alpha reaction is irrelevant.

C.     Conclusion

Through our detailed modeling of the cross-sections we have shown that, although the variation of the nucleon-nucleon potential can greatly affect the triple–a process, its effect on BBN and the production of heavier elements such as CNO is typically 6 orders of magnitude smaller than standard model abundances. Even when including the possibility that 8Be can be bound, at the temperatures, densities and timescales associated with BBN, the changes in the 4He(aa,g )12C and 8Be(a,g )12C reaction rates are not sufficient.

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY AND STOCK PRICES IN NIGERIA: 1986-2008

REVIEW JOURNAL

TITLE :           AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY AND STOCK PRICES IN NIGERIA: 1986-2008

WRITER :       Ajie H. A. and Nenbee, S. G.

A.    The background and research purposes

The financial market is an organized institution that is created for the sale and purchases of funds. It consists of the money and capital markets. Money market is that which deals in short-term securities. On the other hand, capital markets are that part which specializes in the mobilization of long-term funds for the purpose of rapid economic growth and development (Ajie, 2006). A capital market comprises of a primary and secondary markets. A primary market is a market for new issues of securities.

But the secondary market consists of exchanges and over-the-counter market where securities are bought and sold for their issuance in the primary market. Trading on the Nigerian capital market is coordinated by the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSC), (Nwankwo, 1991; Gbosi, 2002:7 and Odoko et al, 2004). On a general note writes Al Faki (2005), the capital market is very vital to the growth; development and strength of any country.

B.     Method

The stock prices data was obtained from the Nigerian Stock Exchange Commission (SEC) – briefs and capital bulletin. It was used as the dependent variable. Money Supply (M2) is defined as currency outside banks plus demand deposits. The data was sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin(various issues). Interest Rates were employed in its strict economic sense as the cost of borrowing money. The rate used was the prime lending rate. The data was obtained from the CBN too.

C.     The results of research and discussions

This phenomenal increment can be attributed to deregulation of  the financial sector. As noted by Gbosi (2002), financial sector liberalization (that is to say, deregulation) was undertaken in order to promote the use of market-based instruments of monetary control for improved financial sector efficiency. Furthermore, between 1992 and 1998, it rose from N53115.2million to about N207061.8million. Following the advent of democracy, its figures increased sharply from N306654.9million in 1999 to as high as N2695342.1million in 2008.

D.    Conclusion

This strategy is well suited for a variety of investors because they can choose the level of risk that is best suited for their confront level. Three models are available for this purpose:

(a) Conservative: Designed for lower risk with a heavier concentration in bonds or equity income funds.

(b) Moderate: Designed for medium risk with a balance between different types of stock and bond funds.

(c) Aggressive: Designed for higher risk with a heavier concentration of stock or growth funds (O' Neill Wyss, 2001).

In sum, the EMT simply dwells on the availability of information to investors on the stock market. The FMA centres on fundamental factors like leverage, value of bonds, earnings per share and more.

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices in Emerging Sri Lankan Stock Market

REVIEW JOURNAL

TITLE :           The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices in

Emerging Sri Lankan Stock Market

WRITER :       L.M.C.S. Menike

A.    The background and research purposes

The results indicate that most of the companies report a higher R2 which justifies higher explanatory power of macroeconomic variables in explaining stock prices. Consistent with similar results of the developed as well as emerging market studies, inflation rate and exchange rate react mainly negatively to stock prices in the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE).

The negative effect of Treasury bill rate implies that whenever the interest rate on Treasury securities rise, investors tend to switch out of stocks causing stock prices to fall. However, lagged money supply variables do not appear to have a strong prediction of movements of stock prices while stocks do not provide effective hedge against inflation specially in Manufacturing, Trading and Diversified sectors in the CSE. These findings hold practical implications for policy makers, stock market regulators, investors and stock market analysts.

B.     Method

This study investigates the effect of macroeconomic variables on stock prices.  number of researchers in various countries have found significant relationships between macroeconomic variables and stock prices. These studies concerned multi-factor models as well as single- factor models which incorporate macroeconomic variables as explanatory factors of the variation in equity returns. The following methodological approach is adopted in this study for establishing the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in the Emerging Sri Lankan Stock Market.

1.Data

The empirical analysis is carried out by using monthly data. The sample period spans from September 1991 to December 2002 and the study was carried out by using 136 monthly observations.

2. Sampel

Although there are 242 stocks listed on the CSE, most stocks do not trade frequently. In order to ensure a reasonable sample size, those stocks, which were traded at least once a month during the sample period, have been included in the sample.

3. Variabel

Avast amount of studies document that significant relationships exist between macroeconomic variables and stock returns. Further, multi-factor models have been developed as an explanation for the variation in security returns and the extant literature suggests that a wide range of factors explain security returns {Fama, 1981, Chen et al., 1986, 2005, Gjerde et al., 1999, and Bilson et al., 2001, Asprem (1989), Jenson et al. (1996), Abdullah and Hayworth, Bulmash and Trivoli (1989), Hooker (2004), Booth and Booth (1994), Wasserfallen (1989). Such variables include goods price, money supply, real activity, exchange rates, interest rates, political risks, oil prices, the trade sector, budget deficits, trade deficits, domestic consumption, unemployment rate, imports and regional stock market indices and real wage.

4. Development of Hypotheses

This research observes the effects of macroeconomic variables on stock prices in the emerging Sri Lankan Stock Market. In order to achieve the objective of the study, the following hypotheses are developed.

·         Hypothesis 1: Money Supply and Stock Prices

·         Hypothesis 2: Money Supply and Exchange Rate

·         Hypothesis 3: Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate.

·         Hypothesis 4: Money Supply, Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate and Interest Rate

·         Hypothesis 5: Money Supply, Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, Lagged Money Supply and Lagged Inflation Rate.

5. The model

This study examines the effect of macroeconomic  variables on stock prices in selected companies in the CSE. Numerous researchers have developed multifactor models relating to a number of macroeconomic  variabel.

multifactor models relating to a number of macroeconomic variables

C.     The results of research and discussions

·         Overall Results

This section presents the main results of regression on monthly data for the period from September 1991 to December 2002. The impact of macroeconomic variables on stock prices is estimated using four concurrent macroeconomic variables and four lagged variables taken together by employing a multiple regression model.

·         Empirical findings - sector wise

The empirical evidence is found that current money supply reacts mainly ositively to stock prices except DFCC while the current exchange rate impacts predominantly negatively to stock prices in the Banking Sector, rejecting the null hypothesis at 5% level. The explanatory power of variables in explaining stock prices is more than 50%.

D.    Conclusion

The stock prices mainly appear to have an inverse relation to exchange rate, concurrent inflation rate and Treasury Bill rate in the CSE. Consistent with the theory which indicates a direct relation, money supply is mainly positively related to stock prices. This result supports the findings of Bilson et al. (2001), Lynge (1981) and Roley (1982). Chen et al. (2005), Bulmash and Trivoli (1991) and Barrows and Naka (1994) that find a positive relation between money supply and stock returns. Rozeff (1984), Campbell (1987), Kaul (1987) and Booth and Booth (1997), confirmed the theory that an expansionary monetary policy increases stock returns. The most significant variable-the exchange rate- is mainly negative to stock prices supporting the findings of Solnik (1987) and Soenen & Hernigar (1988) and Bilson et al. (2001).

The Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Index in Nigeria

REVIEW JOURNAL

TITLE :           The Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and

Stock Market Index in Nigeria

WRITER :       Ifuero Osad Osamwonyi and Esther Ikavbo Evbayiro-Osagie

A.    The background and research purposes

Economic theory and empirical studies considerstock prices and thus, market index to be one of the  best indicators of changes in economicactivity. This intellectual curiosity gained ascendancy in the last two decades due to the increasing belief that real economic activities often impact on stock prices. The Nigerian economy has experienced significant changes in its macroeconomic aggregates in the recent past. The inception of the

Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 came with fundamental economic reforms [a major aspect was the far-reaching liberalization of various sectors of the economy]. Similarly, the transition from a military to civilian rule in 1999 witnessed various programmes of deregulation, privatization and commercialization,

with implications for stock market index. The relationship between stock prices and the economy can be of a reversible model, viz: the stock market may influence the economy as found by Smith (1990), or the economy may influence the stock market (Amadi and Odub 2002). This is the case of macroeconomic variables and the stock market index. Fundamental analysis beliefs that stock prices are influenced by changes in money supply, interest rates, inflation and other macroeconomic indicators. It employs a general equilibrium approach, stressing the interrelations between sectors as central to the understanding of the persistence and comovement of macroeconomic time-series. This is the case of macroeconomic variablesand the stock market index. Fundamental analysis beliefs that stock prices are influenced by changes in money supply, interest rates, inflation and other macroeconomic indicators. It employs a general equilibrium approach, stressing the interrelations between sectors as central to the understanding of the persistence and comovement

of macroeconomic time-series.

B.     Method

The data requirements for this methodology include secondary information on key Nigerian macroeconomic variables such as stock prices, inflation rate, interest rate, money supply, Gross Domestic Product, exchange rate and fiscal deficit. Data on interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, money supply, fiscal deficit and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) were sourced from various issues of the Statistical Bulletin and Annual Report and Statement of Accounts of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

C.     The results of research and discussions

The first stage is to test for the stationarity properties of the variables by employing the Unit Root Test. The results obtained showed that four of the variables passed the unit root test in their level form, while the other four vari ables passed the test in first difference form. See Table 1 for a summary of the unit root test results. Consumer price index as proxy for inflationrate is positively related to SMI in both the short run and long run, but it is only significant in the long run (Table 4) at 1% level. The explanation for this relationship is that increasing inflation in the economy pushes the prices of stocks and thus market index upward, especially

when returns to stocks are expected to rise. On the other hand, it was expected that a high and

rising inflation rate serve to erode the real value of financial assets, stock prices inclusive. It is indicative that wealth holders would tend to shift their wealth holding in favour of real assets to the relative neglect of financial assets. GDP is not significant in the short

D.    Conclusion

This study was designed to evaluate the relationshipbetween selected macroeconomic V ariables and SMI in Nigeria . We expected a relationship between SMI as proxy for stock prices in Nigeria and selected macroeconomic variables. The model was tested using Nigerian data and we found that SMI are influenced by some macroeconomic variables. Optimal policy options are required to manage the determinants that were found significant such as M2, ER, CPI, GDP, and capital market growth. Inflation targeting has become important while adequate securities market supervision should be quickly internalized. In line with this, the results also suggest the need for policy makers to design policies that will help to curtail rapid growth in money supply. There is also the need to formulate policies that are capable of enhancing the national income of the country. Export policies should be encouraged, as they rise to the issue of balance -of- payments deficit or surplus and also responsible for the appreciation or otherwise of a nation’s foreign exchange.